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美银美林:2020年,下个十年的十大趋势

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发表于 2020-1-13 12:12 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

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美银美林:2020年,下个十年的十大趋势

The Decade of Inflection: reaching boiling point
拐点十年:达到沸点
We enter the next decade with interest rates at 5,000-year lows, the largest asset bubble in history, a planet that is heating up, and a deflationary profile of debt, disruption and demographics. We will end it with nearly 1bn people added to the world, a rapidly ageing population, up to 800mn people facing the threat of job automation and the environment on the brink of catastrophic change. At the same time, 3bn more people will be connected online and global data knowledge will be 32x greater than today. The social, political and economic responses to these challenges, all heading to a boiling point this decade, will overhaul traditional paradigms. We outline BofAML Transforming World’s top 10 themes to help  nvestors navigate this decade ahead.
我们进入下一个十年,利率处于5000年来的最低点,历史上最大的资产泡沫,一个正在升温的星球,以及债务、破坏和人口统计的通缩状况。我们将在世界上增加近10亿人口,人口迅速老龄化,多达8亿人面临工作自动化的威胁,环境处于灾难性变化的边缘。与此同时,将有30亿人在线连接,全球数据知识将比今天增长32倍。对这些挑战的社会、政治和经济反应,都将在本世纪达到一个沸点,将彻底改变传统的范式。我们概述了博法姆改变世界前十大主题,以帮助投资者在未来十年的导航。
10 Themes for the Next 10 Years
未来10年的10个主题
1) Peak Globalization: the end of unrestricted free movement of labor, goods, and capital around the world. Winners: local markets, real assets; Losers: global markets.
1) 全球化高峰:世界范围内劳动力、货物和资本自由流动的终结。赢家:本地市场,真实资产;输家:全球市场。
2) Recession: record numbers of FMS investors think the global economy is late-cycle, the bond market bubble is set to unwind and populism is likely to be inflationary. Winners: inflation, real assets, infrastructure; Losers: growth, credit, deflation.
2) 衰退:创纪录数量的FMS投资者认为,全球经济已进入后期周期,债券市场泡沫将被释放,民粹主义可能导致通胀。赢家:通胀、实物资产、基础设施;输家:增长、信贷、通货紧缩。
3) Quantitative Failure: monetary policy measures are proving less and less effective at boosting corporate and household “animal spirits”. Winners: Keynesianism, gold; Losers: financial assets, Monetarism.
3) 量化失败:事实证明,货币政策措施在提振企业和家庭“动物精神”方面越来越不有效。赢家:凯恩斯主义,黄金;输家:金融资产,货币主义。
4) Demographics: the number of grandparents will outnumber the world’s children; every second 5 people enter the EM middle class and Gen Z overtakes Millennials. Winners: eCommerce, new consumer; Losers: bricks & mortar, legacy consumer.
4) 人口统计:祖父母的数量将超过世界儿童的数量;每秒钟就有5人进入新兴市场中产阶级,Z一代超过千禧一代。赢家:电子商务、新消费者;输家:实体、传统消费者。
5) Climate Change: investors are more focused than ever on global warming’s impact on the economy, society, unemployment and migration. Winners: clean energy, electric vehicles; Losers: fossil fuels, diesel cars, single-use plastics.
5) 气候变化:投资者比以往更加关注全球变暖对经济、社会、失业和移民的影响。赢家:清洁能源、电动汽车;输家:化石燃料、柴油汽车、一次性塑料。
6) Robots & Automation: up to 50% of jobs at risk of automation by 2035. Winners: automation, local production, big data & AI; Losers: humans, global supply chains.
6) 机器人与自动化:到2035年,将有高达50%的工作面临自动化风险。赢家:自动化、本地生产、大数据和人工智能;输家:人类、全球供应链。
7) Splinternet: China to overtake the US and become the world leader in AI by 2030. ‘Sovereign internets’ expand. Winners: emerging markets/the East; Losers: developed markets/the West.
7) 斯普林特内特:到2030年,中国将超过美国,成为人工智能领域的世界领先者。“主权互联网”扩张。赢家:新兴市场/东方;输家:发达市场/西方。
8) Moral Capitalism: US20tnofAuMisgoingintoESGstrategiesoverthenext20years=nearlymarketcapofS&amp500.Winners:ESG,impactinvesting,stakeholders;Losers:business-as-usualinvesting,solelyprofit-maximizingfirms.82020ESG=500ESG9)SmartEverything:500bnconnectabledevicesby2030tocombatdeflationarydemographicsbutattheriskofthedeathofprivacy.Winners:IoT,connectivity,smartcities,bigbrothertech;Losers:privacy,offline.92030500010)Space:tourismandnanosatellitesarethenextfrontierforanindustrythatcouldbeworthcUS" role="presentation" style="word-wrap: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; display: inline; line-height: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; position: relative;">20tn of AuM is going into ESG strategies over the next 20 years = nearly market cap of S&500. Winners: ESG, impact investing, stakeholders; Losers: business-as-usual investing, solely profit-maximizing firms.
8) 道德资本主义:未来20年,20万亿美元的资产管理规模将进入ESG战略=接近标准普尔500指数的市值。赢家:ESG、影响投资、利益相关者、失败者:照常投资、独占利润最大化的公司。
9) Smart Everything: 500bn connectable devices by 2030 to combat deflationary demographics but at the risk of the death of privacy. Winners: IoT, connectivity, smart cities, ‘big brother tech’; Losers: privacy, offline.
9) 智能化的一切:到2030年,5000亿个可连接的设备将对抗通货紧缩的人口统计,但同时也面临着隐私被扼杀的风险。赢家:物联网、互联、智能城市、“科技大哥”;输家:隐私、离线。
10) Space: tourism and nanosatellites are the next frontier for an industry that could be worth cUS20tn of AuM is going into ESG strategies over the next 20 years = nearly market cap of S&500. Winners: ESG, impact investing, stakeholders; Losers: business-as-usual investing, solely profit-maximizing firms. 8) 道德资本主义:未来20年,20万亿美元的资产管理规模将进入ESG战略=接近标准普尔500指数的市值。赢家:ESG、影响投资、利益相关者、失败者:照常投资、独占利润最大化的公司。 9) Smart Everything: 500bn connectable devices by 2030 to combat deflationary demographics but at the risk of the death of privacy. Winners: IoT, connectivity, smart cities, ‘big brother tech’; Losers: privacy, offline. 9) 智能化的一切:到2030年,5000亿个可连接的设备将对抗通货紧缩的人口统计,但同时也面临着隐私被扼杀的风险。赢家:物联网、互联、智能城市、“科技大哥”;输家:隐私、离线。 10) Space: tourism and nanosatellites are the next frontier for an industry that could be worth cUS1tn by 2030. Winners: aerospace & defence; Losers: legacy satellites.
10) 太空:到2030年,旅游业和纳米卫星将成为一个价值1万亿美元的产业的下一个前沿领域。赢家:航空航天与国防;输家:遗留卫星。

发表于 2020-1-13 21:43 | 显示全部楼层
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